FEDERAL RESERVE STATISTICAL RELEASE
G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST)
November 16, 2001
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
In October, industrial production fell 1.1 percent, to 139.3 percent of its 1992 average,
and was 6.3 percent below its level a year ago. Manufacturing output decreased 1.2 percent in
October, mining output decreased 1.3 percent, and utilities production rose 0.6 percent. The rate
of capacity utilization for total industry fell 0.9 percentage point, to 74.8 percent, a level 7.3
percentage points below its 1967-2000 average.
Market Groups
-------------
The output of consumer goods declined 0.4 percent in October. A drop of 2.6 percent in
durable consumer goods included sizable declines in the output of automotive products,
appliances, furniture and carpeting goods, and miscellaneous goods. Despite decreases in all
major categories of non-energy nondurable consumer goods (the largest being a 1.1 percent drop
in clothing output), a 2.1 percent increase in consumer energy products pushed the index for total
consumer nondurables to a 0.2 percent gain for the month.
The production of business equipment, which fell 1.7 percent in October, was nearly 12
percent lower than in October 2000. The output of transit equipment declined more than 3
percent for a third consecutive month and has dropped 13.6 percent over the past twelve months.
Production indexes for information processing equipment and for industrial and other equipment
declined more than 1 percent in October. The output of defense and space equipment fell 0.5
percent but remained 1.6 percent above its level a year ago. The output of construction supplies,
which decreased 2.0 percent, showed significant losses in many industries, including lumber and
plywood. The production of business supplies slipped 0.3 percent and was 7.7 percent below its
level a year ago.
The output of industrial materials declined 1.3 percent, its largest drop since June 1998.
The output of steel and parts for motor vehicles declined substantially in October; overall,
durable materials production decreased 1.8 percent, to 10 percent below its level a year ago. The
output of nondurable materials, which had increased in the third quarter, fell 0.9 percent in
October; most major components posted declines. The 0.6 percent decline in the production of
energy materials was mostly attributable to reductions in coal and crude oil output.
Industry Groups
---------------
After having fallen 1.1 percent in September, manufacturing output dropped 1.2 percent
in October. The combined two-month decrease was last exceeded in the winter of 1981-82.
Reductions were evident in nearly all major industries. The production of durable goods fell 1.9
percent in October and has declined more than 9 percent over the past twelve months. The
October decline was marked by noticeable cutbacks in the output of primary metals, motor
vehicles and parts, lumber and products, and furniture and fixtures. The production of
nondurables fell 0.4 percent; decreases in apparel products, textile mill products, and paper and
products more than offset a 2.9 percent increase in petroleum products. The overall factory
operating rate declined about 1 percentage point, to 73.1 percent, and decreases appeared both in
advanced-processing and primary-processing industries.
At mines, production fell 1.3 percent; the utilization rate decreased to 88.6 percent but
remained above its long-run average. The output of utilities increased 0.6 percent; the operating
rate rose 0.3 percentage point, to 86 percent, 1.6 percentage points below its long-term average.
Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
On November 27 at 11 a.m. eastern time, the Federal Reserve Board will publish
revisions to the index of industrial production (IP), to the related measures of capacity and
capacity utilization, and to the index of industrial use of electric power. The updated measures
will reflect the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of
annual revisions. The new source data are for recent years, primarily 1999 and 2000, although
data from 1992 onward will be subject to revision.
Industrial production and capacity utilization will continue to be based on the 1987
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) until the 2002 annual revision, after which they will be
constructed from the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). The new
NAICS-related production indexes will be based on annual output measures that are constructed
by reclassifying the establishments in historical Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral
Industries under NAICS; annual output indexes constructed this way will maximize the
reliability and historical consistency of the IP industry detail.
The updating of source data for IP in the 2001 annual revision will include annual data
from the 1999 Bureau of the Census Annual Survey of Manufactures and from selected editions
of its 1999 and 2000 Current Industrial Reports. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey
regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 1999 and 2000 will also be
introduced. The updating will include revisions to the monthly indicator for each industry
(either physical product data, production-worker hours, or electric power usage) and to seasonal
factors.
Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate preliminary data from the
2000 Survey of Plant Capacity of the Bureau of the Census, which covers manufacturing, along
with other new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy,
and other organizations. The statistics on the industrial use of electric power will incorporate
additional information received from utilities for the past few years and will include some data
from the 1997 Census of Manufactures and the 1998 and 1999 Annual Survey of Manufactures.
Once the revision is published, it will be made available on the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17). The revised data will also be available through the web
site of the Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions is available from
the Board's Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197).
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1992=100 | Percent change
| ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------
| 2001 | 2001 | Oct. '00 to
Industrial production | July Aug. Sept. Oct. | July Aug. Sept. Oct. | Oct. '01
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Total index | 142.7 142.2 140.8 139.3 | -.1 -.4 -1.0 -1.1 | -6.3
Previous estimates | 142.7 141.8 140.3 | -.1 -.7 -1.0 |
| | |
Major market groups: | | |
Products, total | 132.5 131.4 130.0 128.8 | .0 -.8 -1.1 -.9 | -5.5
Consumer goods | 122.1 121.1 120.4 120.0 | .4 -.8 -.6 -.4 | -2.2
Business equipment | 186.5 184.2 179.3 176.2 | -.3 -1.2 -2.6 -1.7 | -11.9
Construction supplies | 139.1 138.3 138.0 135.3 | .1 -.5 -.2 -2.0 | -4.9
Materials | 161.1 161.6 160.3 158.2 | -.2 .3 -.8 -1.3 | -7.6
| | |
Major industry groups: | | |
Manufacturing | 147.7 146.8 145.3 143.6 | .2 -.6 -1.1 -1.2 | -7.3
Durable | 187.5 185.9 182.6 179.2 | .3 -.9 -1.8 -1.9 | -9.3
Nondurable | 111.6 111.2 110.9 110.6 | .0 -.3 -.2 -.4 | -4.9
Mining | 102.4 102.8 102.7 101.3 | -.9 .3 -.1 -1.3 | 1.2
Utilities | 117.4 120.3 119.1 119.9 | -2.1 2.5 -1.0 .6 | -.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | Capacity
| Percent of capacity | growth
| --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------
| Average 1982 1988-89 2000 | 2001 | Oct. '00 to
Capacity utilization | 1967-2000 Low High Oct. | July Aug. Sept. Oct. | Oct. '01
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Total industry | 82.1 71.1 85.4 82.0 | 77.0 76.6 75.7 74.8 | 2.6
Previous estimates | | 77.0 76.4 75.5 |
| | |
Manufacturing | 81.1 69.0 85.7 81.2 | 75.6 75.0 74.1 73.1 | 2.9
Advanced processing | 80.6 71.0 84.2 79.9 | 76.1 75.4 74.3 73.4 | 1.9
Primary processing | 82.2 65.7 88.3 84.5 | 75.8 75.3 74.7 73.6 | 4.8
Mining | 87.4 80.3 88.0 86.3 | 89.3 89.7 89.7 88.6 | -1.4
Utilities | 87.6 75.9 92.6 89.5 | 85.1 86.9 85.7 86.0 | 4.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Estimates for October are preliminary. Estimates from July to September are revised.
Table 1
Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | Fourth quarter to | | |
| | fourth quarter | Annual rate | Monthly rate |
| |---------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------| Oct. '00
| 2000 | | 2000 2001 | 2001 | to
Item |Proportion<1>| 1998 1999 2000 | Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 r | July Aug. Sept. Oct. | Oct. '01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | | |
Total IP | 100.00 | 3.2 5.1 4.2 | -.9 -6.8 -4.4 -5.4 | -.1 -.4 -1.0 -1.1 | -6.3
| | | | |
MARKET GROUPS | | | | |
Products | 60.78 | 3.2 3.4 3.0 | -.5 -4.2 -4.2 -5.9 | .0 -.8 -1.1 -.9 | -5.5
Consumer goods | 28.73 | .2 3.1 .6 | -2.4 -1.8 -.7 -2.4 | .4 -.8 -.6 -.4 | -2.2
Durable | 6.10 | 4.3 8.2 -4.4 | -13.1 -9.6 8.5 .1 | 2.1 -2.1 -1.8 -2.6 | -6.3
Automotive products | 2.88 | 5.4 3.3 -6.9 | -21.9 -13.1 25.6 11.9 | 5.6 -3.4 -2.5 -3.2 | -3.8
Home electronics | .45 | 11.7 53.3 2.8 | 17.4 -37.7 -10.3 -21.7 | -5.0 2.1 -4.1 1.3 | -19.0
Appliances, furniture, carpeting | 1.37 | 6.9 6.0 -1.3 | -6.2 3.3 -4.7 -4.0 | -1.9 1.8 .6 -3.4 | -4.4
Miscellaneous goods | 1.41 | -2.5 4.6 -4.2 | -9.7 -3.8 -2.6 -12.4 | .8 -4.2 -2.0 -1.1 | -9.1
| | | | |
Nondurable | 22.63 | -1.0 1.6 2.0 | .6 .3 -2.9 -3.1 | .0 -.5 -.2 .2 | -1.2
Non-energy | 19.19 | -.5 1.5 1.2 | -1.0 .8 -1.7 -2.6 | .3 -.7 -.3 -.2 | -1.7
Foods and tobacco | 9.97 | .6 .2 .9 | -2.0 -.1 -1.6 -2.9 | .0 -.8 -.2 -.1 | -1.6
Clothing | 1.39 | -8.1 -4.9 -4.4 | -7.0 -1.3 -14.8 -18.8 | .6 -3.1 -2.2 -1.1 | -12.3
Chemical products | 4.95 | 3.3 5.8 2.5 | 1.2 5.5 3.0 3.0 | 1.0 .0 .0 -.3 | 2.4
Paper products | 2.88 | -5.4 2.6 3.1 | 1.5 -3.2 -3.6 -4.0 | -.2 -.5 -.5 -.3 | -4.3
Energy | 3.44 | -4.1 2.5 6.7 | 10.0 -2.3 -9.1 -5.2 | -1.5 .6 .2 2.1 | 1.7
| | | | |
Business equipment | 14.25 | 9.1 5.7 11.0 | 5.2 -7.5 -10.4 -14.7 | -.3 -1.2 -2.6 -1.7 | -11.9
Transit | 2.60 | 12.9 -8.9 -8.8 | -20.5 -17.5 7.4 -10.2 | 1.2 -3.5 -3.8 -3.9 | -13.6
Information processing | 5.92 | 16.8 21.0 23.1 | 18.5 -3.6 -11.1 -15.5 | -1.7 .2 -1.8 -1.3 | -9.3
Industrial and other | 5.73 | -.1 -1.5 8.6 | 4.4 -7.4 -16.3 -15.8 | .4 -1.7 -2.9 -1.3 | -13.9
| | | | |
Defense and space equipment | 1.94 | 8.2 -3.1 -3.3 | 3.6 5.7 -3.1 -1.6 | .7 -.8 .7 -.5 | 1.6
| | | | |
Construction supplies | 6.13 | 7.6 4.5 .3 | -4.7 -3.1 -3.0 -2.3 | .1 -.5 -.2 -2.0 | -4.9
Business supplies | 9.02 | 1.8 2.3 1.3 | -.5 -10.3 -7.5 -5.8 | -.8 .0 -1.5 -.3 | -7.7
| | | | |
Materials | 39.22 | 3.7 8.0 6.2 | -1.6 -10.6 -4.7 -4.6 | -.2 .3 -.8 -1.3 | -7.6
Durable | 22.78 | 7.2 10.9 12.1 | -1.0 -12.4 -4.9 -6.5 | .0 -.3 -1.6 -1.8 | -9.8
Consumer parts | 4.49 | .1 7.1 .2 | -6.0 -28.2 17.4 -.6 | 1.2 -.1 -3.8 -2.8 | -12.6
Equipment parts | 8.68 | 20.5 22.0 36.1 | 11.5 -4.8 -16.0 -10.6 | -.5 -.4 -.8 -.8 | -8.7
Other | 9.61 | -.6 3.4 -1.7 | -9.8 -11.9 -3.2 -5.4 | -.2 -.4 -1.3 -2.2 | -9.6
| | | | |
Nondurable | 8.38 | -2.8 5.6 -5.2 | -7.7 -15.1 -10.2 .5 | .3 1.1 .5 -.9 | -8.7
Textile | .73 | -8.5 -1.2 -9.7 | -23.8 -10.8 -17.7 -17.4 | -5.0 2.8 -.8 .0 | -14.1
Paper | 1.53 | -2.9 4.2 -4.5 | -1.8 -12.6 -4.9 1.5 | 2.4 1.3 .8 -1.3 | -7.7
Chemical | 4.31 | -4.0 9.4 -6.2 | -11.7 -18.5 -15.5 4.3 | -.1 1.7 .5 -1.1 | -10.2
| | | | |
Energy | 8.06 | -.7 .5 1.4 | 3.1 -.6 1.5 -4.4 | -1.0 1.1 .1 -.6 | -.4
| | | | |
| | | | |
INDUSTRY GROUPS | | | | |
Manufacturing | 87.40 | 4.0 5.6 4.3 | -1.6 -7.9 -5.1 -5.6 | .2 -.6 -1.1 -1.2 | -7.3
Durable | 47.81 | 8.0 8.2 8.4 | -.4 -9.6 -5.2 -7.6 | .3 -.9 -1.8 -1.9 | -9.3
Lumber and products 24 | 1.82 | 5.4 .5 -7.3 | -12.4 -12.0 12.6 7.0 | .5 .3 .8 -2.3 | -1.7
Furniture and fixtures 25 | 1.61 | 6.2 3.1 5.6 | 4.2 -5.6 -4.7 -12.1 | -.1 -1.7 -1.7 -2.3 | -10.3
Stone, clay, and glass products 32 | 2.38 | 5.6 2.3 .9 | -4.3 -.6 -4.1 -3.4 | .6 -1.1 .4 -.6 | -4.6
Primary metals 33 | 3.32 | -3.4 8.0 -5.6 | -16.5 -18.9 3.9 -4.4 | .8 -1.2 -2.4 -4.4 | -12.3
Fabricated metals 34 | 5.49 | 1.5 1.6 1.0 | -4.6 -9.5 -8.3 -4.9 | .6 -.3 -2.0 -1.6 | -9.5
Industrial machinery and equipment 35 | 9.06 | 11.6 13.6 14.4 | 7.4 -8.2 -15.6 -15.2 | -.6 -.4 -2.8 -1.1 | -12.6
Electrical machinery 36 | 9.02 | 20.4 25.2 39.0 | 16.7 -7.1 -19.0 -15.8 | -1.9 -.1 -1.5 -1.1 | -11.7
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.72 | 3.3 5.9 -6.4 | -23.6 -27.2 37.4 7.1 | 4.4 -2.7 -4.1 -4.2 | -10.3
Aerospace and miscellaneous | | | | |
transportation equipment 372-6,9 | 3.52 | 10.4 -11.6 -.4 | 5.4 -3.0 -3.4 -10.0 | -.7 -1.2 -.7 -1.7 | -5.4
Instruments 38 | 4.54 | 3.9 4.5 1.9 | 1.8 -.3 -5.7 -3.4 | .7 -.1 -.2 -1.2 | -3.5
Miscellaneous 39 | 1.31 | .7 6.6 .0 | -3.1 -5.2 -2.7 -7.1 | .8 -3.7 -1.1 -.7 | -7.0
| | | | |
Nondurable | 39.59 | -.4 2.5 -.7 | -3.0 -5.9 -4.9 -3.3 | .0 -.3 -.2 -.4 | -4.9
Food and tobacco products 20,21 | 10.52 | .8 .3 .8 | -2.0 -.2 -2.0 -2.6 | .0 -.7 -.3 .0 | -1.7
Textile mill products 22 | 1.23 | -6.5 -.2 -7.9 | -18.8 -8.2 -16.4 -15.2 | -4.3 1.7 .3 -1.0 | -12.3
Apparel products 23 | 1.41 | -6.3 -4.0 -5.3 | -8.0 -.8 -7.0 -16.9 | 1.2 -4.1 -2.3 -1.7 | -11.1
Paper and products 26 | 3.30 | -.1 3.0 -3.1 | 3.2 -13.4 1.2 -5.4 | 1.0 -1.0 1.2 -1.3 | -7.3
Printing and publishing 27 | 6.58 | -1.8 1.8 1.5 | .8 -10.0 -10.2 -8.3 | -.8 .0 -1.3 -.4 | -9.2
Chemicals and products 28 | 10.33 | .2 6.7 -1.3 | -2.8 -8.2 -6.2 4.0 | .8 .6 .5 -.6 | -3.8
Petroleum products 29 | 2.39 | 2.1 .2 1.2 | -4.5 -1.7 3.5 -6.9 | -.9 -1.2 -.8 2.9 | .2
Rubber and plastics products 30 | 3.65 | 1.6 3.6 -1.9 | -9.7 -4.9 -5.6 -1.6 | .1 -.6 -.3 -1.1 | -5.9
| | | | |
Mining 10-14 | 6.69 | -5.3 -.5 1.3 | -1.5 6.0 7.5 -3.7 | -.9 .3 -.1 -1.3 | 1.2
Utilities 491,2,3pt | 5.91 | -1.4 2.3 6.5 | 9.3 -3.4 -7.9 -3.8 | -2.1 2.5 -1.0 .6 | -.1
Electric | 4.45 | 1.6 1.7 6.3 | 12.1 -6.6 .5 -6.2 | -2.1 3.0 -1.6 .9 | .3
Gas | 1.46 | -11.9 4.6 7.5 | .7 7.2 -29.3 4.2 | -2.0 .8 1.0 -.2 | -1.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. The abbreviation pt
denotes part of an SIC code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board's web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in
the products category, oil and gas drilling and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous
nondurable materials are not shown separately. Under industry groups, in the nondurables category, leather and products is not shown separately.
Estimates for the month of October are preliminary. Estimates from July to September are revised.
1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year.
Table 2
Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | Fourth quarter to | | |
| | fourth quarter | Annual rate | Monthly rate |
| |---------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------| Oct. '00
| 2000 | | 2000 2001 | 2001 | to
Item | Proportion| 1998 1999 2000 | Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 r | July Aug. Sept. Oct. | Oct. '01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | | |
Total industry | 100.00 | 3.2 5.1 4.2 | -.9 -6.8 -4.4 -5.4 | -.1 -.4 -1.0 -1.1 | -6.3
| | | | |
Energy | 13.92 | -3.1 1.2 4.1 | 4.2 -.2 -.2 -4.3 | -1.2 .9 -.4 .2 | .3
Consumer products | 3.44 | -4.1 2.5 6.7 | 10.0 -2.3 -9.1 -5.2 | -1.5 .6 .2 2.1 | 1.7
Commercial products | 1.90 | -.5 1.0 7.2 | -2.7 -3.5 7.6 3.1 | -1.6 1.3 -2.8 .8 | 1.4
Oil and gas well drilling | .52 | -26.3 5.6 18.9 | 8.5 33.3 7.8 -19.4 | -1.8 -3.2 -2.6 -3.9 | -1.9
Converted fuel | 2.28 | -.2 2.8 5.2 | 12.9 -15.5 -3.7 -11.5 | -.9 1.8 .2 .6 | -6.2
Primary materials | 5.78 | -1.0 -.7 -.2 | -.6 5.9 3.4 -1.8 | -1.0 .9 .1 -1.0 | 1.9
| | | | |
Non-energy | 86.08 | 4.1 5.6 4.2 | -1.8 -7.8 -5.1 -5.6 | .2 -.6 -1.1 -1.3 | -7.4
| | | | |
Selected high-technology industries | 8.47 | 37.2 40.6 55.3 | 25.2 -6.1 -20.8 -18.9 | -1.9 -.7 -1.7 -.7 | -12.5
Computers and office equipment 357 | 2.37 | 54.0 54.3 42.0 | 24.8 -3.5 -12.8 -14.3 | -.8 -.5 -2.5 -.5 | -9.2
Communications equipment 366 | 1.94 | 9.0 13.4 35.5 | 30.2 -1.7 -17.1 -24.4 | -3.5 -.9 -2.5 -1.9 | -13.4
Semiconductors and related | | | | |
electronic components 3672-9 | 4.16 | 45.7 47.8 73.4 | 23.3 -9.6 -26.9 -18.5 | -1.6 -.7 -.7 -.2 | -13.7
| | | | |
Excluding selected high-technology | | | | |
industries | 77.61 | 1.2 2.3 -.7 | -4.7 -8.1 -3.1 -4.1 | .4 -.6 -1.0 -1.3 | -6.9
| | | | |
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.72 | 3.3 5.9 -6.4 | -23.6 -27.2 37.4 7.1 | 4.4 -2.7 -4.1 -4.2 | -10.3
Motor vehicles 3711,3 | 3.10 | 6.9 2.1 -12.3 | -33.7 -17.7 37.1 9.9 | 7.3 -5.1 -4.3 -5.1 | -8.1
Motor vehicle parts 3714 | 2.48 | -1.6 10.8 3.3 | -7.1 -35.6 39.5 4.5 | 1.7 -.2 -3.9 -3.1 | -12.0
| | | | |
Excluding motor vehicles and parts | 71.88 | 1.1 2.0 -.2 | -3.1 -6.5 -5.6 -5.0 | .1 -.4 -.8 -1.1 | -6.6
Consumer goods | 22.73 | -.4 2.5 .4 | -1.7 -.1 -1.8 -3.5 | .1 -.8 -.4 -.4 | -2.4
Business equipment | 9.48 | 3.3 -2.4 5.3 | 3.8 -8.3 -12.4 -14.2 | -.2 -.9 -2.3 -1.5 | -12.1
Business supplies | 7.13 | 2.3 2.6 -.1 | .1 -12.1 -11.4 -8.3 | -.6 -.4 -1.1 -.7 | -10.2
Materials | 24.30 | -1.0 3.3 -2.3 | -7.4 -11.4 -5.8 -2.8 | .2 .2 -.7 -1.6 | -8.4
| | | | |
Measures excluding selected high-technology | | | | |
industries | | | | |
Total industry | 91.53 | .7 2.2 .0 | -3.4 -6.9 -2.7 -4.2 | .1 -.3 -.9 -1.1 | -5.8
Manufacturing | 78.92 | 1.2 2.3 -.5 | -4.5 -8.2 -3.2 -4.2 | .4 -.6 -1.0 -1.2 | -6.8
Durable | 39.34 | 2.7 2.2 -.4 | -5.9 -10.5 -1.3 -5.2 | .7 -.9 -1.8 -2.1 | -8.7
Industrial machinery 351-6,8,9 | 6.69 | .5 1.2 4.9 | .9 -10.1 -16.5 -15.6 | -.5 -.4 -2.9 -1.3 | -13.8
Electrical machinery 361-5,9,71 | 2.92 | -.3 6.5 .1 | -1.7 -7.0 -8.1 -5.6 | -1.1 1.2 -1.8 -1.6 | -7.8
| | | | |
Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts | | | | |
Total industry | 94.28 | 3.2 5.0 4.9 | .6 -5.5 -6.3 -6.1 | -.3 -.2 -.8 -.9 | -6.1
Manufacturing | 81.67 | 4.1 5.5 5.0 | .1 -6.6 -7.3 -6.5 | -.1 -.5 -.8 -.9 | -7.1
Durable | 42.09 | 8.7 8.5 10.5 | 3.1 -7.2 -9.5 -9.5 | -.3 -.6 -1.5 -1.5 | -9.2
| | | | |
Primary processing 1 | 34.36 | 4.3 8.8 5.6 | -3.6 -13.0 -5.2 -4.2 | .2 -.4 -.7 -1.3 | -8.7
Advanced processing 2 | 53.04 | 3.9 3.7 3.4 | -.2 -4.6 -5.0 -6.5 | .2 -.8 -1.3 -1.1 | -6.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See notes to table 1.
Estimates for the month of October are preliminary. Estimates from July to September are revised.
1. Primary processing consists of textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and fertilizers, petroleum
products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, stone, clay and glass products, semiconductors and
related electronic components, and motor vehicle parts.
2. Advanced processing consists of foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and other agricultural
chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial machinery and equipment, electrical machinery except semiconductors and related
electronic components, transportation equipment except motor vehicle parts, instruments, and miscellaneous manufacturers.
Table 3
Motor Vehicle Assemblies
Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2000 | 2000 2001 | 2001
Item | Average| Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 | July Aug. Sept. Oct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 12.77 | 11.63 10.92 11.70 11.63 | 12.05 11.62 11.23 10.79
Autos | 5.54 | 5.00 4.96 5.10 4.70 | 4.86 4.62 4.64 4.49
Trucks | 7.23 | 6.63 5.97 6.60 6.93 | 7.20 7.00 6.59 6.30
Light | 6.84 | 6.32 5.69 6.33 6.68 | 6.93 6.74 6.37 6.09
Medium and heavy | .39 | .31 .27 .27 .25 | .26 .26 .22 .21
| | |
Memo: | | |
Autos and light trucks | 12.38 | 11.32 10.65 11.43 11.39 | 11.79 11.36 11.01 10.58
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board's web site,
www.federalreserve.gov/G17/mvsf.htm
Table 4
Industrial Production Indexes: Market and Industry Group Summary
1992 = 100, seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2000 | 2001
Item | Proportion| Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| |
Total IP | 100.00 | 145.4 145.0 144.6 144.2 142.8 142.7 142.2 140.8 139.3
| |
MARKET GROUPS | |
Products | 60.78 | 134.6 134.5 133.8 133.7 132.4 132.5 131.4 130.0 128.8
Consumer goods | 28.73 | 122.3 122.4 122.1 122.2 121.6 122.1 121.1 120.4 120.0
Durable | 6.10 | 150.8 153.6 152.9 155.6 154.1 157.4 154.1 151.3 147.4
Automotive products | 2.88 | 138.2 145.4 145.1 148.7 148.0 156.3 151.0 147.2 142.4
Home electronics | .45 | 690.6 661.7 663.3 707.1 674.9 641.1 654.9 628.0 636.3
Appliances, furniture, carpeting | 1.37 | 135.8 135.1 132.7 133.4 132.1 129.5 131.9 132.7 128.2
Miscellaneous goods | 1.41 | 115.4 114.7 115.0 115.3 114.1 115.1 110.2 107.9 106.8
| |
Nondurable | 22.63 | 115.3 114.8 114.6 114.2 113.8 113.7 113.2 112.9 113.1
Non-energy | 19.19 | 114.6 114.2 114.1 114.1 113.5 113.8 113.0 112.6 112.4
Foods and tobacco | 9.97 | 110.7 110.1 110.2 109.7 109.8 109.7 108.9 108.7 108.6
Clothing | 1.39 | 82.8 82.2 81.2 79.8 76.9 77.4 75.0 73.4 72.5
Chemical products | 4.95 | 141.5 141.5 140.9 143.0 141.4 142.8 142.8 142.8 142.4
Paper products | 2.88 | 111.1 110.9 111.5 110.7 110.5 110.3 109.8 109.2 108.9
Energy | 3.44 | 119.2 118.6 117.5 115.2 115.8 114.1 114.8 115.0 117.4
| |
Business equipment | 14.25 | 195.3 195.6 193.3 191.9 187.1 186.5 184.2 179.3 176.2
Transit | 2.60 | 114.4 117.8 116.3 117.5 116.4 117.8 113.7 109.4 105.0
Information processing | 5.92 | 330.6 327.7 326.7 324.3 315.8 310.4 311.1 305.4 301.5
Industrial and other | 5.73 | 144.7 144.7 141.8 139.8 135.5 136.0 133.7 129.8 128.2
| |
Defense and space equipment | 1.94 | 76.7 77.7 78.0 76.8 76.4 76.9 76.3 76.9 76.5
| |
Construction supplies | 6.13 | 139.9 140.5 139.6 139.3 139.0 139.1 138.3 138.0 135.3
Business supplies | 9.02 | 117.0 114.9 114.3 114.9 114.3 113.4 113.4 111.7 111.3
| |
Materials | 39.22 | 165.0 163.9 164.1 163.3 161.4 161.1 161.6 160.3 158.2
Durable | 22.78 | 225.2 223.6 223.0 223.6 220.3 220.3 219.6 216.0 212.1
Consumer parts | 4.49 | 149.9 153.1 153.6 158.2 155.9 157.8 157.6 151.6 147.3
Equipment parts | 8.68 | 514.9 508.2 498.3 493.7 483.1 480.8 478.7 475.0 471.1
Other | 9.61 | 127.2 125.5 126.9 127.0 126.0 125.7 125.3 123.6 120.9
| |
Nondurable | 8.38 | 107.2 104.6 105.2 103.1 102.5 102.8 104.0 104.4 103.5
Textile | .73 | 87.7 87.4 86.3 83.7 83.4 79.3 81.5 80.8 80.8
Paper | 1.53 | 112.4 105.9 111.3 108.5 104.8 107.4 108.8 109.6 108.1
Chemical | 4.31 | 108.2 105.9 104.1 102.2 103.0 102.8 104.6 105.1 104.0
| |
Energy | 8.06 | 103.9 104.9 105.8 104.8 103.8 102.8 104.0 104.1 103.5
| |
| |
INDUSTRY GROUPS | |
Manufacturing | 87.40 | 150.7 150.0 149.6 149.2 147.5 147.7 146.8 145.3 143.6
Durable | 47.81 | 191.1 191.3 190.1 190.1 186.9 187.5 185.9 182.6 179.2
Lumber and products 24 | 1.82 | 109.1 111.4 110.9 114.0 113.8 114.3 114.6 115.5 112.8
Furniture and fixtures 25 | 1.61 | 143.8 143.2 142.5 143.5 140.0 139.9 137.5 135.2 132.1
Stone, clay, and glass products 32 | 2.38 | 134.3 134.3 133.3 134.3 132.0 132.9 131.4 131.9 131.1
Primary metals 33 | 3.32 | 121.3 117.8 122.4 122.5 121.8 122.8 121.3 118.4 113.1
Fabricated metals 34 | 5.49 | 130.3 129.8 129.3 128.8 127.1 127.8 127.5 125.0 123.0
Industrial machinery and equipment 35 | 9.06 | 255.0 255.7 251.0 246.1 240.0 238.7 237.6 231.0 228.5
Electrical machinery 36 | 9.02 | 593.7 581.0 569.9 565.8 552.3 542.0 541.7 533.4 527.5
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.72 | 147.4 156.5 155.4 162.9 160.7 167.7 163.2 156.4 149.9
Aerospace and miscellaneous | |
transportation equipment 372-6,9 | 3.52 | 93.5 94.3 94.1 93.2 92.4 91.7 90.7 90.0 88.5
Instruments 38 | 4.54 | 123.3 122.6 123.1 122.4 120.0 120.9 120.8 120.6 119.2
Miscellaneous 39 | 1.31 | 127.6 127.6 128.4 126.6 127.9 128.9 124.1 122.8 121.9
| |
Nondurable | 39.59 | 114.0 112.7 112.8 112.2 111.5 111.6 111.2 110.9 110.6
Food and tobacco products 20,21 | 10.52 | 111.2 110.6 110.6 110.2 110.2 110.2 109.4 109.1 109.1
Textile mill products 22 | 1.23 | 92.7 92.4 90.7 87.4 87.7 84.0 85.4 85.7 84.8
Apparel products 23 | 1.41 | 88.7 88.4 88.2 87.9 85.2 86.2 82.6 80.7 79.3
Paper and products 26 | 3.30 | 112.8 107.7 113.7 110.9 108.8 109.9 108.8 110.1 108.6
Printing and publishing 27 | 6.58 | 107.7 106.2 105.6 105.3 104.0 103.1 103.2 101.8 101.4
Chemicals and products 28 | 10.33 | 122.6 121.2 120.1 120.2 119.5 120.4 121.1 121.7 121.0
Petroleum products 29 | 2.39 | 116.5 115.0 116.7 116.2 116.7 115.7 114.3 113.4 116.7
Rubber and plastics products 30 | 3.65 | 137.3 136.5 136.0 135.0 135.5 135.6 134.8 134.4 132.9
| |
Mining 10-14 | 6.69 | 101.4 102.7 103.5 103.8 103.4 102.4 102.8 102.7 101.3
Utilities 491,2,3pt | 5.91 | 121.8 122.0 120.9 119.5 119.9 117.4 120.3 119.1 119.9
Electric | 4.45 | 123.9 125.5 127.2 125.0 124.4 121.8 125.4 123.4 124.5
Gas | 1.46 | 112.9 109.7 101.2 102.1 105.1 102.9 103.8 104.9 104.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See notes to table 1.
Estimates for October are preliminary. Estimates from July to September are revised.
Table 5
Industrial Production Indexes: Special Aggregates
1992 = 100, seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2000 | 2001
Item | Proportion| Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| |
Total industry | 100.00 | 145.4 145.0 144.6 144.2 142.8 142.7 142.2 140.8 139.3
| |
Energy | 13.92 | 111.0 111.5 111.7 111.1 110.9 109.5 110.5 110.0 110.2
Consumer products | 3.44 | 119.2 118.6 117.5 115.2 115.8 114.1 114.8 115.0 117.4
Commercial products | 1.90 | 127.8 127.4 126.4 131.4 134.0 131.8 133.4 129.6 130.7
Oil and gas well drilling | .52 | 147.9 150.7 151.2 152.2 150.4 147.7 143.0 139.3 133.9
Converted fuel | 2.28 | 113.1 113.7 114.7 112.6 108.1 107.1 109.0 109.2 110.0
Primary materials | 5.78 | 99.3 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.8 99.8 100.6 100.7 99.7
| |
Non-energy | 86.08 | 151.3 150.6 150.1 149.8 148.0 148.3 147.4 145.8 143.9
| |
Selected high-technology industries | 8.47 | 1334.1 1312.2 1283.1 1260.2 1228.4 1205.4 1197.1 1177.0 1168.5
Computers and office equipment 357 | 2.37 | 1484.2 1477.5 1464.4 1434.6 1410.1 1398.3 1391.5 1356.7 1349.9
Communications equipment 366 | 1.94 | 393.0 388.2 384.2 376.6 369.4 356.3 353.1 344.4 337.8
Semiconductors and related | |
electronic components 3672-9 | 4.16 | 2275.5 2217.7 2138.2 2105.3 2035.2 2002.8 1988.9 1974.2 1970.4
| |
Excluding selected high-technology | |
industries | 77.61 | 121.1 120.7 120.5 120.5 119.3 119.7 119.0 117.8 116.2
| |
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.72 | 147.4 156.5 155.4 162.9 160.7 167.7 163.2 156.4 149.9
Motor vehicles 3711,3 | 3.10 | 133.6 143.5 142.5 148.9 146.2 156.8 148.8 142.3 135.1
Motor vehicle parts 3714 | 2.48 | 172.2 180.3 179.9 189.6 187.3 190.4 190.0 182.5 176.9
| |
Excluding motor vehicles and parts | 71.88 | 119.4 118.5 118.4 117.9 116.8 116.8 116.4 115.5 114.2
Consumer goods | 22.73 | 116.1 115.7 115.5 115.6 115.0 115.1 114.2 113.8 113.3
Business equipment | 9.48 | 135.6 135.3 133.7 132.7 128.8 128.6 127.4 124.4 122.6
Business supplies | 7.13 | 114.3 111.9 111.4 110.9 109.4 108.8 108.4 107.3 106.6
Materials | 24.30 | 118.9 117.2 117.9 117.1 116.1 116.4 116.6 115.7 113.9
| |
Measures excluding selected high-technology | |
industries | |
Total industry | 91.53 | 119.7 119.5 119.4 119.2 118.2 118.3 117.9 116.8 115.6
Manufacturing | 78.92 | 120.8 120.4 120.3 120.2 119.0 119.4 118.7 117.5 116.1
Durable | 39.34 | 128.0 128.7 128.4 128.9 127.0 127.9 126.7 124.5 121.9
Industrial machinery 351-6,8,9 | 6.69 | 144.8 145.6 142.5 139.7 135.9 135.2 134.7 130.8 129.2
Electrical machinery 361-5,9,71 | 2.92 | 133.7 130.7 130.5 132.2 130.2 128.9 130.4 128.1 126.0
| |
Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts | |
Total industry | 94.28 | 145.4 144.5 144.1 143.4 141.9 141.5 141.2 140.1 138.9
Manufacturing | 81.67 | 151.1 149.8 149.3 148.5 146.8 146.6 145.9 144.7 143.3
Durable | 42.09 | 197.6 196.5 195.2 194.0 190.7 190.2 189.1 186.4 183.5
| |
Primary processing | 34.36 | 173.1 171.1 171.3 170.6 169.0 169.2 168.6 167.5 165.4
Advanced processing | 53.04 | 138.4 138.3 137.5 137.3 135.6 135.8 134.7 133.0 131.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See notes to table 2.
Estimates for the month of October are preliminary. Estimates from July to September are revised.
Table 6
Capacity Utilization
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | 1967- 1988- 1990- 1994-| |
| 2000 | 2000 89 91 95| 2000 2001 | 2001
Item | Proportion| Ave. High Low High| Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 r | July Aug. Sept. Oct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total industry | 100.00 | 82.1 85.4 78.1 84.4 | 81.3 79.2 77.8 76.4 | 77.0 76.6 75.7 74.8
| | | |
Manufacturing | 88.70 | 81.1 85.7 76.6 84.0 | 80.3 77.9 76.4 74.9 | 75.6 75.0 74.1 73.1
| | | |
Durable | 49.19 | 79.6 84.6 73.1 83.6 | 80.7 77.2 75.3 73.1 | 74.2 73.4 71.9 70.3
Lumber and products 24 | 1.89 | 82.6 93.6 75.5 89.4 | 76.3 73.7 75.8 77.0 | 76.7 76.9 77.4 75.6
Furniture and fixtures 25 | 1.65 | 81.3 86.6 72.5 83.9 | 80.0 78.2 76.9 74.2 | 75.6 74.2 72.9 71.2
Stone, clay, and glass products 32 | 2.31 | 78.9 83.5 69.7 86.8 | 84.0 83.4 82.1 81.0 | 81.6 80.5 80.7 80.1
Primary metals 33 | 3.13 | 81.6 92.7 73.7 95.4 | 83.1 78.8 79.6 78.8 | 80.1 79.1 77.2 73.8
Fabricated metals 34 | 5.85 | 77.9 82.0 71.9 85.2 | 75.7 73.4 71.5 70.3 | 71.0 70.8 69.3 68.1
Industrial machinery and equipment 35 | 9.34 | 81.4 85.4 72.3 87.3 | 82.5 79.5 75.3 71.5 | 72.6 72.0 69.8 68.8
Electrical machinery 36 | 9.26 | 81.4 84.0 75.0 90.1 | 87.1 80.0 72.8 68.0 | 68.9 68.3 66.8 65.5
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.74 | 77.0 89.1 55.9 85.9 | 76.0 69.9 75.4 76.5 | 79.1 76.8 73.6 70.4
Aerospace and miscellaneous | | | |
transportation equipment 372,6-9 | 4.01 | 75.2 87.3 60.7 85.3 | 72.8 72.3 71.7 69.7 | 70.4 69.6 69.0 67.8
Instruments 38 | 4.69 | 81.6 81.4 74.5 82.6 | 80.5 80.3 78.9 78.1 | 78.2 78.1 77.9 76.9
Miscellaneous 39 | 1.32 | 75.9 79.0 71.7 81.9 | 80.5 79.2 78.3 76.5 | 78.8 75.8 74.8 74.2
| | | |
Nondurable | 39.52 | 83.2 87.3 79.7 85.6 | 79.7 78.5 77.6 76.9 | 77.2 76.9 76.8 76.5
Food and tobacco products 20,21 | 10.54 | 83.3 85.9 79.1 85.8 | 81.2 81.2 80.9 80.3 | 80.8 80.2 80.0 80.0
Textile mill products 22 | 1.26 | 85.5 90.4 77.7 92.6 | 77.1 76.0 73.3 71.1 | 70.0 71.4 71.9 71.4
Apparel products 23 | 1.64 | 80.6 85.1 70.7 85.9 | 69.4 69.6 68.5 65.6 | 67.9 65.1 63.7 62.6
Paper and products 26 | 3.18 | 88.7 93.5 83.1 91.6 | 83.3 80.1 80.2 78.9 | 79.2 78.3 79.2 78.1
Printing and publishing 27 | 6.59 | 85.4 91.7 77.8 87.7 | 82.0 79.9 77.7 76.0 | 76.3 76.3 75.3 74.9
Chemicals and products 28 | 10.56 | 79.3 86.2 74.2 84.2 | 75.5 73.8 72.7 73.4 | 73.0 73.5 73.9 73.4
Petroleum products 29 | 1.97 | 87.3 88.5 85.1 97.1 | 94.3 93.8 94.5 92.7 | 93.7 92.6 91.7 94.4
Rubber and plastics products 30 | 3.58 | 84.7 89.6 77.4 91.3 | 80.9 79.3 77.8 77.2 | 77.7 77.2 76.8 75.9
| | | |
Mining | 5.96 | 87.4 88.0 82.0 91.0 | 86.6 88.2 90.1 89.5 | 89.3 89.7 89.7 88.6
Utilities | 5.33 | 87.6 92.6 83.0 93.5 | 92.0 90.4 87.7 85.9 | 85.1 86.9 85.7 86.0
| | | |
Selected high-technology industries | 9.18 | 80.4 81.9 72.4 87.9 | 85.1 77.3 69.3 63.6 | 64.9 63.8 62.1 61.1
Computers and office equipment 357 | 2.79 | 81.2 86.9 66.9 91.4 | 78.2 73.7 68.6 64.0 | 65.4 64.4 62.2 61.3
Communications equipment 366 | 2.03 | 80.4 84.8 73.4 87.8 | 87.3 83.2 75.5 66.7 | 68.9 67.1 64.2 61.9
Semiconductors and related | | | |
electronic components 3672-9 | 4.36 | 80.0 81.1 72.6 90.8 | 87.9 76.4 66.3 61.1 | 62.0 61.1 60.2 59.6
| | | |
Measures excluding selected high-technology | | | |
industries | | | |
Total industry | 90.82 | 82.2 85.7 78.4 84.2 | 80.6 79.1 78.4 77.5 | 78.0 77.7 76.9 76.1
Manufacturing | 79.52 | 81.2 86.1 76.8 83.8 | 79.5 77.6 76.9 76.0 | 76.6 76.1 75.3 74.4
Industrial machinery 351-6,8,9 | 6.54 | 81.3 85.5 72.9 88.1 | 84.2 81.8 77.8 74.1 | 75.2 74.7 72.4 71.4
Electrical machinery 361-5,9,71 | 2.88 | 83.4 87.5 74.3 93.2 | 82.9 81.0 79.4 78.4 | 78.2 79.2 77.8 76.6
| | | |
Primary processing | 33.89 | 82.2 88.3 76.7 88.7 | 82.7 78.4 76.6 75.3 | 75.8 75.3 74.7 73.6
Advanced processing | 54.81 | 80.6 84.2 76.6 82.3 | 79.5 78.2 76.9 75.3 | 76.1 75.4 74.3 73.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See notes to table 2.
Estimates for the month of October are preliminary. Estimates from July to September are revised.
Table 7
Industrial Capacity
Percent change
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Average annual rate | Fourth quarter to fourth quarter | Annual rate | Monthly rate
|----------------------------|------------------------------------|----------------------------|--------------
| 1967- 1980- 1989- 1995-| | 2001 | 2001
Item | 79 88 94 2001 | 1998 1999 2000 2001 | Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 | Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total industry | 3.5 2.2 2.2 4.9 | 6.5 4.6 4.6 2.4 | 3.7 2.5 1.8 1.6 | .1
| | | |
Manufacturing | 3.7 2.5 2.5 5.5 | 7.2 5.1 5.0 2.7 | 4.1 2.8 1.9 1.8 | .1
| | | |
Durable | 3.6 3.1 3.0 8.5 | 10.2 8.4 8.8 4.9 | 7.6 5.1 3.6 3.4 | .3
Nondurable | 3.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 | 4.1 1.3 .8 -.1 | .1 -.1 -.2 -.2 | .0
| | | |
Mining | .4 .2 -.6 -.3 | -.1 -1.5 -.8 -1.3 | -1.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1 | -.1
Utilities | 4.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 | 1.1 2.4 3.3 4.1 | 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.4 | .4
| | | |
| | | |
Selected high-technology industries | 11.3 15.9 13.5 38.9 | 39.5 37.8 47.6 21.5 | 37.7 22.7 14.1 13.1 | 1.0
Manufacturing ex. selected | | | |
high-technology industries | 3.3 1.4 1.7 2.5 | 4.4 2.1 1.3 .6 | .7 .5 .5 .5 | .0
| | | |
Primary processing | 3.8 1.6 3.3 7.6 | 9.4 4.9 8.0 4.2 | 7.6 4.4 2.5 2.3 | .2
Advanced processing | 3.7 3.1 2.1 4.0 | 5.7 5.2 3.0 1.8 | 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 | .1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 8
Gross Value of Products
Billions of 1996 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | 2000 2001 | 2001
Item | 1996 | 2000 | Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 r | July Aug. Sept. Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | |
Products, total | 2,427.8 | 2,878.0 | 2,879.2 2,860.3 2,821.6 2,809.4 2,775.3 | 2,803.8 2,777.5 2,744.5 2,721.7
| | | |
Final products | 1,862.5 | 2,216.7 | 2,217.1 2,202.4 2,175.9 2,170.2 2,141.7 | 2,167.2 2,142.3 2,115.7 2,099.5
| | | |
Consumer goods | 1,225.0 | 1,342.8 | 1,347.1 1,332.9 1,321.1 1,327.7 1,323.0 | 1,334.5 1,321.4 1,313.1 1,309.7
Durable | 303.9 | 372.3 | 371.5 355.0 344.4 356.5 359.8 | 368.0 359.5 351.9 341.1
Automotive products | 162.6 | 195.0 | 195.3 181.9 175.0 186.8 192.8 | 199.6 192.2 186.7 179.7
Other durable goods | 141.3 | 177.9 | 176.7 175.0 171.6 170.3 166.1 | 166.8 166.6 165.0 161.6
Nondurable | 921.0 | 970.6 | 975.3 975.8 973.5 969.7 962.4 | 966.5 961.1 959.5 965.2
| | | |
Equipment, total | 637.5 | 872.7 | 878.9 879.7 863.7 848.1 820.2 | 835.5 823.0 802.0 786.9
Business and defense | 610.2 | 850.4 | 856.4 859.2 842.9 825.7 798.0 | 813.1 800.6 780.2 765.9
Business | 538.6 | 788.7 | 800.3 802.2 784.5 767.4 739.4 | 754.9 742.5 720.8 706.4
Defense and space | 71.6 | 65.9 | 65.3 66.1 66.7 66.2 65.6 | 65.8 65.3 65.8 65.4
| | | |
Intermediate products | 565.3 | 661.3 | 661.2 656.9 644.9 638.6 632.8 | 636.0 634.5 628.0 621.4
Construction supplies | 235.0 | 285.4 | 284.9 281.3 278.7 277.5 276.3 | 277.2 276.2 275.6 269.5
Business supplies | 330.3 | 375.6 | 375.9 375.2 365.9 360.8 356.3 | 358.6 358.0 352.2 351.6
Commercial energy products | 85.5 | 95.8 | 96.8 95.9 94.7 96.6 96.9 | 97.6 98.3 95.0 96.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimates for October are preliminary. Estimates from July to September are revised.
Table 9
Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
Percent
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One Month Earlier
1999 53.6 56.5 55.4 59.4 55.1 50.7 58.2 55.8 48.6 64.5 53.3 59.8
2000 58.7 50.4 56.5 51.4 51.4 56.2 54.2 43.5 54.0 43.5 45.7 37.9
2001 46.7 41.8 41.7 44.9 42.4 37.0 45.3 40.6 33.3
Three Months Earlier
1999 52.9 56.9 56.5 56.5 55.8 58.0 56.2 63.4 58.0 62.0 58.3 62.7
2000 61.2 62.0 59.8 56.2 54.0 52.9 49.6 44.9 48.9 43.1 45.3 42.4
2001 38.9 36.8 37.7 39.9 39.9 38.0 37.7 35.9 34.4
Six Months Earlier
1999 59.1 53.3 56.2 54.3 58.0 59.8 60.1 60.1 61.6 67.4 62.7 62.7
2000 68.1 65.9 68.1 64.1 60.0 55.4 49.6 43.8 47.5 44.9 41.7 39.5
2001 40.9 38.0 35.1 33.3 34.4 35.1 34.4 34.8 34.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated
span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged.
Table 10
Electric Power Use
1992 = 100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | Seasonally adjusted | Not seasonally adjusted
| 1992 |------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------
|Billion| 2001 | 2001
Item | KWH | Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. | Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total manufacturing and mining | 933.2 | 102.8 102.3 99.7 100.3 99.6 99.3 | 102.3 101.5 101.5 101.6 103.1 102.8
| | |
Manufacturing | 853.2 | 103.3 102.7 99.8 100.4 99.8 99.5 | 102.8 101.9 101.7 102.1 103.7 103.2
Durable | 366.0 | 103.9 104.5 102.3 103.1 102.3 100.1 | 103.5 104.0 104.2 104.4 105.8 103.7
Nondurable | 487.2 | 102.8 101.2 97.7 98.2 97.8 98.9 | 102.2 100.2 99.8 100.2 102.1 102.8
| | |
Mining | 80.1 | 96.5 96.9 98.6 98.3 96.2 97.0 | 95.9 95.4 97.7 94.8 94.5 96.7
| | |
Total ex. nuclear nondefense | 908.9 | 104.5 105.1 103.3 103.7 103.0 101.5 | 103.4 104.2 105.3 105.5 106.9 105.4
Utility sales to industry | 835.5 | 102.7 101.7 100.1 101.0 100.4 99.7 | 102.6 101.5 101.4 101.3 103.0 103.2
Industrial generation | 97.7 | 102.6 102.0 103.7 103.2 103.0 98.3 | 99.0 100.5 101.9 105.6 105.6 96.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. Additional industry detail is available on the Board's web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/download.htm.
Estimates for September are preliminary. Estimates from July to August are revised.
Table 11
Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry
Seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Year | Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1979 | -.5 .8 .3 -.9 1.2 .0 -.7 -.4 .1 .4 -.5 -.2 | 2.2 1.1 -2.3 -.3 | 3.3
1980 | .5 .1 .0 -1.9 -2.5 -1.3 -.6 1.2 1.5 .7 1.6 .5 | .8 -15.0 -4.2 14.2 | -2.8
1981 | -.9 .5 .5 -.7 .8 .6 .9 -.4 -.8 -.8 -1.4 -1.1 | 1.9 2.2 4.1 -10.5 | 1.6
1982 | -1.6 2.2 -.7 -.9 -.8 -.3 -.8 -.5 -.7 -.8 -.3 -.8 | -6.4 -5.2 -7.3 -7.5 | -5.4
| | |
1983 | 2.1 -.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 .6 1.8 1.3 1.7 .8 -.1 .5 | 6.8 11.9 17.3 10.3 | 3.7
1984 | 2.1 -.2 1.1 .5 .6 .5 .2 .0 -.1 -.5 .1 -.4 | 11.1 7.2 2.6 -2.6 | 8.9
1985 | .4 .9 .3 .2 .2 -.2 -.4 .6 .6 -.9 .6 .7 | 3.0 2.8 .3 1.4 | 1.6
1986 | .6 -.7 -1.0 .8 -.2 -.3 .3 .3 -.1 .9 .5 .9 | 2.0 -1.7 .7 6.5 | 1.1
1987 | -.6 1.2 .4 .4 .4 .9 .6 .1 -.1 1.4 .3 .6 | 4.2 6.7 5.6 7.1 | 4.6
| | |
1988 | .1 .3 .0 .6 .1 .1 .7 .5 -.4 .3 .8 .5 | 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 | 4.5
1989 | .6 -.8 .9 .2 -.6 -.2 -1.0 .4 -.2 -.5 .4 .5 | 3.8 .5 -4.4 -.1 | 1.8
1990 | -.5 .5 .5 -.6 .4 .0 .0 .2 .1 -.6 -1.3 -.6 | 2.0 .6 1.0 -5.8 | -.2
1991 | -.5 -.8 -.9 .3 .8 1.2 .1 .1 1.0 -.1 -.1 -.6 | -8.3 1.5 6.2 1.1 | -2.0
1992 | .1 .5 .9 .7 .3 -.2 .7 -.3 .4 .7 .5 .0 | 1.0 6.5 2.4 5.0 | 3.1
| | |
1993 | .4 .5 .2 .3 -.5 .3 .2 -.2 1.1 .3 .4 .8 | 3.8 1.5 1.9 6.2 | 3.5
1994 | .2 .3 .8 .5 .8 .4 .6 .3 .1 .5 .7 1.0 | 5.5 7.7 5.8 6.3 | 5.4
1995 | .6 -.1 .2 -.2 .4 .4 -.4 1.3 .6 -.4 .3 .1 | 6.0 1.1 4.4 2.9 | 4.8
1996 | -.2 1.1 -.1 1.1 .8 .8 .0 .6 .5 .0 1.0 .4 | 2.8 9.2 5.4 5.3 | 4.6
1997 | .5 1.0 .2 .6 .3 .6 .7 .9 .6 .6 .6 .3 | 7.6 6.1 7.9 7.3 | 6.8
| | |
1998 | .4 .0 .3 .5 .4 -.7 -.1 2.1 -.3 .5 -.4 .1 | 3.6 3.0 3.4 2.9 | 4.9
1999 | .6 .3 .7 .1 .7 .2 .8 .4 .1 .8 .3 .7 | 3.9 4.9 5.8 5.7 | 4.2
2000 | .5 .5 .7 .7 .7 .5 -.2 .7 .2 -.2 -.3 -.6 | 6.7 7.9 3.5 -.9 | 5.6
2001 | -.9 -.4 -.3 -.3 -.3 -1.0 -.1 -.4 -1.0 -1.1 | -6.8 -4.4 -5.4 |
| | |
IP | | |
(1992=100) | | |
1999 | 135.9 136.3 137.3 137.4 138.4 138.6 139.7 140.3 140.4 141.5 141.9 142.8 | 136.5 138.1 140.1 142.1 | 139.6
2000 | 143.6 144.3 145.2 146.3 147.2 147.9 147.6 148.6 149.0 148.7 148.2 147.3 | 144.4 147.1 148.4 148.1 | 147.5
2001 | 146.0 145.4 145.0 144.6 144.2 142.8 142.7 142.2 140.8 139.3 | 145.5 143.9 141.9 |
| | |
Capacity | | |
(percent of | | |
1992 output) | | |
1999 | 167.9 168.6 169.2 169.9 170.5 171.1 171.7 172.3 172.9 173.5 174.1 174.8 | 168.6 170.5 172.3 174.1 | 171.4
2000 | 175.4 176.1 176.7 177.4 178.1 178.7 179.4 180.1 180.7 181.4 182.1 182.8 | 176.1 178.1 180.1 182.1 | 179.1
2001 | 183.3 183.7 184.2 184.5 184.9 185.2 185.4 185.7 185.9 186.2 | 183.7 184.9 185.7 |
| | |
Utilization | | |
(percent) | | |
1979 | 86.7 87.1 87.1 86.1 86.9 86.7 85.9 85.4 85.3 85.5 84.9 84.5 | 87.0 86.6 85.5 85.0 | 86.0
1980 | 84.7 84.6 84.4 82.6 80.4 79.2 78.5 79.3 80.3 80.7 81.8 82.1 | 84.6 80.7 79.4 81.5 | 81.5
1981 | 81.2 81.4 81.6 80.9 81.4 81.8 82.3 81.8 80.9 80.1 78.8 77.7 | 81.4 81.4 81.7 78.9 | 80.8
1982 | 76.3 77.8 77.1 76.2 75.4 75.0 74.2 73.7 73.0 72.2 71.9 71.1 | 77.1 75.6 73.6 71.7 | 74.5
| | |
1983 | 72.5 72.3 72.9 73.7 74.5 74.8 76.1 77.0 78.2 78.7 78.6 78.9 | 72.6 74.4 77.1 78.7 | 75.7
1984 | 80.4 80.1 80.8 81.0 81.3 81.5 81.5 81.3 81.0 80.5 80.4 79.8 | 80.4 81.3 81.3 80.2 | 80.8
1985 | 79.9 80.4 80.4 80.3 80.3 79.9 79.4 79.6 79.9 79.0 79.2 79.5 | 80.2 80.2 79.6 79.2 | 79.8
1986 | 79.8 79.2 78.2 78.7 78.4 78.1 78.2 78.3 78.2 78.8 79.1 79.7 | 79.1 78.4 78.2 79.2 | 78.7
1987 | 79.1 80.0 80.2 80.5 80.7 81.4 81.8 81.8 81.6 82.6 82.8 83.2 | 79.8 80.8 81.7 82.9 | 81.3
| | |
1988 | 83.2 83.4 83.3 83.7 83.7 83.6 84.1 84.5 84.1 84.2 84.8 85.1 | 83.3 83.7 84.2 84.7 | 84.0
1989 | 85.4 84.6 85.3 85.3 84.7 84.4 83.4 83.6 83.3 82.8 83.0 83.2 | 85.1 84.8 83.4 83.0 | 84.1
1990 | 82.7 83.0 83.3 82.7 82.9 82.7 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.0 80.8 80.2 | 83.0 82.8 82.6 81.0 | 82.3
1991 | 79.6 78.9 78.1 78.2 78.7 79.6 79.5 79.5 80.2 80.0 79.8 79.2 | 78.9 78.8 79.7 79.6 | 79.3
1992 | 79.1 79.4 79.9 80.4 80.4 80.1 80.5 80.2 80.3 80.8 81.0 80.9 | 79.5 80.3 80.3 80.9 | 80.2
| | |
1993 | 81.0 81.3 81.3 81.4 80.9 80.9 81.0 80.7 81.4 81.5 81.6 82.1 | 81.2 81.1 81.0 81.7 | 81.3
1994 | 82.1 82.1 82.5 82.7 83.2 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.3 83.5 83.7 84.3 | 82.2 83.1 83.4 83.8 | 83.1
1995 | 84.4 84.0 83.8 83.3 83.3 83.2 82.5 83.3 83.4 82.8 82.7 82.4 | 84.1 83.3 83.1 82.6 | 83.3
1996 | 81.9 82.4 82.0 82.5 82.8 83.1 82.7 82.8 82.9 82.5 83.0 83.0 | 82.1 82.8 82.8 82.8 | 82.6
1997 | 83.0 83.5 83.3 83.4 83.3 83.3 83.5 83.8 83.8 83.9 83.9 83.7 | 83.3 83.3 83.7 83.8 | 83.5
| | |
1998 | 83.5 83.1 82.9 82.8 82.7 81.6 81.1 82.4 81.8 81.8 81.1 80.8 | 83.2 82.4 81.8 81.2 | 82.1
1999 | 81.0 80.9 81.1 80.9 81.2 81.0 81.3 81.4 81.2 81.5 81.5 81.7 | 81.0 81.0 81.3 81.6 | 81.2
2000 | 81.9 82.0 82.2 82.5 82.7 82.7 82.3 82.6 82.4 82.0 81.4 80.6 | 82.0 82.6 82.4 81.3 | 82.1
2001 | 79.7 79.2 78.7 78.4 78.0 77.1 77.0 76.6 75.7 74.8 | 79.2 77.8 76.4 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Annual percentage changes are calculated from annual averages.
Table 12
Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing
Seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Year | Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1979 | -.3 .7 .4 -1.5 1.5 .1 -.5 -.9 .0 .5 -.7 -.1 | 3.4 .3 -2.4 -1.5 | 3.6
1980 | .2 .3 -.4 -2.1 -3.1 -1.5 -.7 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.7 .3 | -.4 -17.7 -4.7 16.8 | -3.9
1981 | -.6 .6 .3 .2 .7 -.1 .6 -.8 -.8 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 | 2.5 4.2 -.1 -13.1 | 1.6
1982 | -2.0 2.9 -.7 -.9 -.4 .0 -.8 -.5 -.5 -1.2 -.3 -.7 | -7.6 -2.7 -5.6 -8.0 | -5.9
| | |
1983 | 2.5 .4 1.4 1.1 1.4 .8 1.5 1.1 2.2 .6 .3 -.1 | 11.5 14.7 17.1 11.2 | 5.7
1984 | 2.5 .6 .7 .5 .4 .7 .3 .1 -.2 .0 .1 -.3 | 13.2 6.6 3.4 -.4 | 9.9
1985 | .1 .6 .7 .2 .5 -.3 -.4 .9 .4 -.8 1.1 -.1 | 2.1 4.2 1.1 1.6 | 2.3
1986 | 1.5 -.5 -.9 1.4 -.1 -.3 .3 .6 .0 .8 .4 1.2 | 4.5 1.7 1.7 6.7 | 2.8
1987 | -.8 1.6 .2 .5 .3 1.0 .7 -.2 .1 1.3 .5 .6 | 5.0 7.0 5.5 7.6 | 5.3
| | |
1988 | -.2 .4 -.1 1.0 -.1 .0 .7 .3 .2 .2 .9 .6 | 2.3 4.1 3.7 5.2 | 4.7
1989 | .9 -1.2 .8 .1 -.7 .0 -1.1 .3 -.3 -.6 .4 .1 | 4.3 -.7 -4.5 -1.4 | 1.9
1990 | -.2 .9 .3 -.8 .4 -.1 .0 .3 -.1 -.6 -1.3 -.6 | 2.9 -.1 .8 -6.3 | -.5
1991 | -.9 -.7 -1.1 .3 .7 1.4 .2 .2 1.1 -.1 -.2 -.5 | -9.7 1.2 7.8 1.7 | -2.4
1992 | .3 .6 1.0 .6 .4 -.1 .7 -.2 .3 .7 .5 -.1 | 2.4 7.3 3.0 4.5 | 4.0
| | |
1993 | .7 .3 .2 .5 -.4 .0 .2 -.2 1.3 .2 .5 .9 | 4.4 2.0 1.5 6.6 | 3.7
1994 | .0 .4 1.0 .8 .9 .2 .8 .5 .2 .6 .9 1.0 | 5.6 9.4 6.6 7.6 | 6.0
1995 | .6 -.2 .3 -.3 .2 .5 -.6 1.3 .9 -.3 .2 .1 | 6.5 .7 3.9 3.6 | 5.3
1996 | -.2 1.0 -.2 1.3 .9 .9 .2 .6 .6 .0 1.0 .6 | 2.3 10.1 7.1 5.7 | 4.9
1997 | .5 1.2 .4 .5 .3 .8 .6 1.1 .5 .6 .7 .4 | 8.5 6.7 9.0 7.7 | 7.8
| | |
1998 | .6 .0 .2 .6 .3 -.8 -.1 2.3 -.2 .7 -.2 .2 | 4.8 2.8 3.9 4.7 | 5.6
1999 | .5 .5 .5 .2 .8 .2 .6 .6 .1 .9 .5 .6 | 4.1 5.4 6.0 6.8 | 4.8
2000 | .6 .4 .9 .6 .6 .4 -.1 .6 .3 -.1 -.5 -1.0 | 7.1 8.0 3.7 -1.6 | 6.1
2001 | -.8 -.4 -.5 -.3 -.2 -1.2 .2 -.6 -1.1 -1.2 | -7.9 -5.1 -5.6 |
| | |
IP | | |
(1992 = 100) | | |
1999 | 140.5 141.2 141.9 142.2 143.4 143.6 144.5 145.3 145.6 146.8 147.5 148.4 | 141.2 143.1 145.1 147.6 | 144.8
2000 | 149.2 149.9 151.3 152.2 153.1 153.8 153.7 154.6 155.1 154.9 154.1 152.6 | 150.1 153.0 154.4 153.8 | 153.6
2001 | 151.3 150.7 150.0 149.6 149.2 147.5 147.7 146.8 145.3 143.6 | 150.7 148.7 146.6 |
| | |
Capacity | | |
(percent of | | |
1992 output) | | |
1999 | 175.3 176.0 176.8 177.5 178.3 179.0 179.7 180.3 181.0 181.7 182.4 183.1 | 176.0 178.3 180.3 182.4 | 179.3
2000 | 183.8 184.6 185.3 186.1 186.9 187.6 188.4 189.1 189.9 190.7 191.5 192.3 | 184.6 186.9 189.2 191.5 | 188.0
2001 | 192.9 193.5 194.0 194.4 194.8 195.1 195.4 195.7 196.0 196.3 | 193.5 194.8 195.7 |
| | |
Utilization | | |
(percent) | | |
1979 | 86.4 86.7 86.9 85.3 86.4 86.3 85.6 84.5 84.3 84.5 83.6 83.3 | 86.7 86.0 84.8 83.8 | 85.3
1980 | 83.3 83.3 82.7 80.8 78.1 76.7 75.9 77.0 77.9 78.6 79.7 79.7 | 83.1 78.5 76.9 79.3 | 79.5
1981 | 79.0 79.2 79.3 79.3 79.6 79.3 79.6 78.8 78.0 77.0 75.6 74.2 | 79.2 79.4 78.8 75.6 | 78.3
1982 | 72.6 74.6 73.9 73.1 72.7 72.6 71.8 71.4 70.9 69.9 69.6 69.0 | 73.7 72.8 71.4 69.5 | 71.8
| | |
1983 | 70.6 70.8 71.8 72.5 73.4 73.9 74.8 75.6 77.2 77.6 77.7 77.5 | 71.1 73.2 75.9 77.6 | 74.4
1984 | 79.3 79.5 79.8 80.0 80.1 80.3 80.4 80.2 79.8 79.6 79.5 79.0 | 79.5 80.1 80.1 79.4 | 79.8
1985 | 78.9 79.1 79.3 79.2 79.4 78.9 78.3 78.8 78.8 77.9 78.5 78.2 | 79.1 79.2 78.6 78.2 | 78.8
1986 | 79.1 78.6 77.8 78.7 78.5 78.1 78.2 78.6 78.4 78.9 79.1 79.9 | 78.5 78.5 78.4 79.3 | 78.7
1987 | 79.1 80.2 80.3 80.6 80.7 81.4 81.8 81.5 81.5 82.5 82.8 83.1 | 79.9 80.9 81.6 82.8 | 81.3
| | |
1988 | 82.9 83.1 82.9 83.7 83.5 83.4 83.8 84.0 84.0 84.1 84.8 85.1 | 83.0 83.5 83.9 84.7 | 83.8
1989 | 85.7 84.5 85.0 85.0 84.2 84.1 83.0 83.1 82.7 82.1 82.2 82.1 | 85.1 84.4 82.9 82.1 | 83.6
1990 | 81.8 82.5 82.6 81.8 82.0 81.8 81.6 81.7 81.5 80.9 79.7 79.0 | 82.3 81.9 81.6 79.9 | 81.4
1991 | 78.2 77.5 76.6 76.8 77.1 78.1 78.2 78.2 79.0 78.9 78.6 78.1 | 77.5 77.3 78.5 78.5 | 77.9
1992 | 78.1 78.5 79.1 79.5 79.6 79.4 79.8 79.5 79.6 79.9 80.2 79.9 | 78.6 79.5 79.6 80.0 | 79.4
| | |
1993 | 80.4 80.4 80.4 80.7 80.2 80.1 80.1 79.7 80.6 80.6 80.7 81.3 | 80.4 80.3 80.1 80.9 | 80.4
1994 | 81.1 81.1 81.7 82.1 82.6 82.5 82.8 82.9 82.8 83.0 83.3 83.8 | 81.3 82.4 82.8 83.4 | 82.5
1995 | 84.0 83.5 83.3 82.7 82.5 82.6 81.7 82.3 82.7 82.0 81.7 81.4 | 83.6 82.6 82.2 81.7 | 82.5
1996 | 80.9 81.3 80.7 81.4 81.7 82.0 81.8 81.9 82.0 81.6 82.0 82.1 | 81.0 81.7 81.9 81.9 | 81.6
1997 | 82.1 82.6 82.5 82.5 82.3 82.5 82.6 83.1 83.0 83.0 83.1 82.9 | 82.4 82.5 82.9 83.0 | 82.7
| | |
1998 | 82.9 82.4 82.0 82.0 81.8 80.6 80.1 81.5 80.9 81.0 80.4 80.2 | 82.4 81.5 80.8 80.5 | 81.3
1999 | 80.2 80.2 80.3 80.1 80.4 80.2 80.4 80.6 80.4 80.8 80.9 81.0 | 80.2 80.3 80.5 80.9 | 80.5
2000 | 81.2 81.2 81.6 81.8 81.9 82.0 81.6 81.7 81.7 81.2 80.5 79.3 | 81.3 81.9 81.7 80.3 | 81.3
2001 | 78.4 77.9 77.3 76.9 76.6 75.6 75.6 75.0 74.1 73.1 | 77.9 76.4 74.9 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See note to table 11.
Table 13
Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Year | Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1979 | -.7 .8 .2 -1.1 1.1 -.1 -.8 -.5 .0 .3 -.6 -.3 | .9 -.1 -3.5 -1.4 | 2.2
1980 | .3 .0 -.1 -2.2 -2.7 -1.3 -.8 1.2 1.6 .6 1.6 .5 | -.7 -16.6 -4.9 13.8 | -4.0
1981 | -.9 .4 .4 -.8 .8 .5 .9 -.5 -1.0 -.8 -1.6 -1.4 | 1.3 1.1 3.2 -11.8 | .8
1982 | -1.6 2.0 -.8 -.9 -.9 -.4 -1.0 -.4 -1.0 -1.0 -.3 -1.2 | -7.7 -5.8 -8.2 -9.1 | -6.5
| | |
1983 | 2.5 -.4 .8 1.2 1.2 .4 1.8 1.4 1.6 .6 -.2 .5 | 6.9 10.6 16.8 8.7 | 2.8
1984 | 1.9 -.3 1.0 .4 .4 .3 .1 -.1 -.2 -.5 .0 -.5 | 9.7 5.3 1.0 -3.5 | 7.5
1985 | .3 .9 .2 .1 .2 -.1 -.5 .6 .7 -.8 .3 .7 | 2.3 2.5 .5 1.0 | .9
1986 | .7 -.8 -1.1 .8 -.3 -.2 .0 .2 -.2 1.0 .4 1.0 | 1.7 -1.8 -.6 6.3 | .8
1987 | -.8 1.2 .3 .4 .5 .8 .5 .1 -.2 1.3 .3 .5 | 3.5 6.8 5.0 6.5 | 4.2
| | |
1988 | .1 .2 .1 .4 -.2 .1 .6 .5 -.3 .4 .6 .5 | 2.8 1.8 3.3 3.5 | 3.9
1989 | .5 -.7 .9 .1 -.7 -.3 -.9 .4 -.3 -.3 .2 .3 | 3.5 -.3 -4.8 -.4 | 1.4
1990 | -.4 .5 .5 -.5 .3 -.1 .0 .1 .2 -.6 -1.4 -.7 | 1.7 .6 .7 -6.4 | -.5
1991 | -.5 -.9 -1.0 .4 .8 1.2 .1 .0 1.0 -.2 -.2 -.7 | -8.8 1.4 6.1 .4 | -2.4
1992 | -.2 .4 .8 .7 .2 -.4 .6 -.4 .3 .6 .4 .0 | -.6 5.7 1.3 3.9 | 2.2
| | |
1993 | .4 .5 .1 .3 -.6 .2 .2 -.2 1.0 .2 .4 .7 | 3.7 .8 1.2 5.0 | 2.8
1994 | .1 .3 .6 .3 .7 .3 .4 .2 .0 .4 .6 .8 | 4.5 5.6 4.0 4.2 | 4.1
1995 | .3 -.3 -.1 -.4 .2 .3 -.6 1.1 .3 -.7 .1 -.1 | 2.9 -1.3 2.2 -.5 | 2.4
1996 | -.3 .9 -.3 1.0 .6 .6 -.3 .3 .2 -.4 .8 .2 | .7 7.0 2.2 2.0 | 2.0
1997 | .3 .8 -.1 .4 .1 .3 .4 .8 .5 .6 .4 .1 | 5.2 3.0 5.4 6.4 | 4.1
| | |
1998 | .1 -.2 .3 .4 .3 -1.1 -.5 2.0 -.6 .2 -.6 -.2 | 1.0 1.8 -.1 .0 | 2.7
1999 | .4 .0 .5 -.3 .5 -.1 .4 .3 .0 .6 .0 .3 | .9 1.4 2.9 3.4 | 1.2
2000 | .1 .1 .2 .3 .3 .0 -.7 .5 .0 -.4 -.5 -.8 | 1.7 2.9 -.9 -3.4 | 1.8
2001 | -.8 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.9 .1 -.3 -.9 -1.1 | -6.9 -2.7 -4.2 |
| | |
IP | | |
(1992 = 100) | | |
1999 | 119.3 119.4 119.9 119.6 120.2 120.1 120.6 120.9 120.9 121.7 121.7 122.1 | 119.5 119.9 120.8 121.8 | 120.5
2000 | 122.2 122.3 122.6 123.0 123.4 123.4 122.5 123.2 123.2 122.6 122.0 121.1 | 122.4 123.2 122.9 121.9 | 122.6
2001 | 120.1 119.7 119.5 119.4 119.2 118.2 118.3 117.9 116.8 115.6 | 119.7 118.9 117.7 |
| | |
Capacity | | |
(percent of | | |
1992 output) | | |
1999 | 147.1 147.3 147.6 147.8 148.1 148.3 148.5 148.7 148.9 149.1 149.3 149.5 | 147.3 148.1 148.7 149.3 | 148.3
2000 | 149.6 149.8 150.0 150.2 150.3 150.5 150.7 150.8 150.9 151.0 151.2 151.3 | 149.8 150.3 150.8 151.2 | 150.5
2001 | 151.3 151.4 151.5 151.6 151.6 151.7 151.7 151.8 151.9 151.9 | 151.4 151.6 151.8 |
| | |
Utilization | | |
(percent) | | |
1979 | 86.6 87.1 87.1 86.1 86.8 86.6 85.8 85.2 85.1 85.3 84.7 84.3 | 86.9 86.5 85.4 84.7 | 85.9
1980 | 84.4 84.3 84.1 82.1 79.8 78.7 78.0 78.8 80.0 80.4 81.6 81.8 | 84.3 80.2 78.9 81.3 | 81.2
1981 | 81.0 81.2 81.5 80.7 81.3 81.6 82.2 81.6 80.7 79.9 78.5 77.3 | 81.2 81.2 81.5 78.6 | 80.6
1982 | 76.0 77.4 76.7 75.9 75.1 74.7 73.9 73.5 72.6 71.8 71.5 70.5 | 76.7 75.2 73.3 71.3 | 74.1
| | |
1983 | 72.3 72.0 72.6 73.4 74.2 74.5 75.8 76.8 78.0 78.4 78.2 78.6 | 72.3 74.0 76.9 78.4 | 75.4
1984 | 80.0 79.7 80.4 80.6 80.8 81.0 80.9 80.7 80.5 80.0 79.9 79.3 | 80.1 80.8 80.7 79.7 | 80.3
1985 | 79.5 80.0 80.1 80.0 80.0 79.8 79.3 79.6 80.0 79.1 79.2 79.6 | 79.9 79.9 79.6 79.3 | 79.7
1986 | 80.1 79.4 78.5 79.0 78.7 78.5 78.4 78.5 78.3 79.0 79.3 80.0 | 79.3 78.7 78.4 79.4 | 79.0
1987 | 79.4 80.2 80.5 80.8 81.1 81.7 82.1 82.2 81.9 83.0 83.2 83.5 | 80.0 81.2 82.1 83.2 | 81.6
| | |
1988 | 83.6 83.7 83.7 84.0 83.8 83.9 84.3 84.6 84.3 84.6 85.0 85.3 | 83.7 83.9 84.4 85.0 | 84.2
1989 | 85.7 85.0 85.6 85.6 84.9 84.6 83.6 83.9 83.5 83.2 83.3 83.4 | 85.4 85.0 83.7 83.3 | 84.4
1990 | 83.0 83.3 83.7 83.1 83.3 83.1 83.0 83.0 83.0 82.4 81.1 80.5 | 83.3 83.2 83.0 81.4 | 82.7
1991 | 80.0 79.2 78.4 78.6 79.1 80.0 80.0 79.9 80.6 80.4 80.2 79.5 | 79.2 79.2 80.2 80.0 | 79.7
1992 | 79.3 79.5 80.1 80.6 80.6 80.2 80.7 80.3 80.4 80.8 81.0 81.0 | 79.7 80.5 80.4 80.9 | 80.4
| | |
1993 | 81.2 81.5 81.5 81.6 81.0 81.1 81.2 80.9 81.6 81.6 81.8 82.2 | 81.4 81.2 81.2 81.9 | 81.4
1994 | 82.2 82.3 82.7 82.7 83.2 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.3 83.4 83.7 84.2 | 82.4 83.1 83.4 83.7 | 83.1
1995 | 84.2 83.8 83.5 83.0 83.0 83.1 82.5 83.2 83.3 82.5 82.4 82.2 | 83.8 83.0 83.0 82.4 | 83.1
1996 | 81.8 82.4 81.9 82.6 82.9 83.3 82.8 82.9 82.9 82.5 83.0 83.0 | 82.0 82.9 82.9 82.8 | 82.7
1997 | 83.1 83.6 83.3 83.4 83.3 83.3 83.4 83.8 83.9 84.2 84.2 84.0 | 83.3 83.3 83.7 84.2 | 83.6
| | |
1998 | 83.8 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 82.1 81.4 82.8 82.1 82.0 81.3 81.0 | 83.5 82.9 82.1 81.4 | 82.5
1999 | 81.1 81.0 81.2 80.9 81.2 81.0 81.2 81.3 81.2 81.7 81.5 81.7 | 81.1 81.0 81.3 81.6 | 81.3
2000 | 81.6 81.6 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.0 81.3 81.7 81.6 81.2 80.7 80.0 | 81.7 82.0 81.5 80.6 | 81.5
2001 | 79.3 79.0 78.9 78.8 78.6 77.9 78.0 77.7 76.9 76.1 | 79.1 78.4 77.5 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. Excluded industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. See also note to table 11.
Table 14
Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Year | Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1979 | -.7 .7 .3 -1.7 1.4 .0 -.6 -1.1 -.1 .4 -.9 -.2 | 1.9 -1.2 -3.8 -2.9 | 2.2
1980 | .0 .1 -.6 -2.4 -3.4 -1.5 -.9 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.7 .2 | -2.3 -19.9 -5.6 16.5 | -5.4
1981 | -.6 .4 .2 .1 .7 -.3 .5 -.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 | 1.8 2.8 -1.7 -15.0 | .5
1982 | -2.1 2.7 -.8 -.9 -.5 -.1 -1.0 -.3 -.9 -1.4 -.4 -1.1 | -9.4 -3.4 -6.7 -10.2 | -7.4
| | |
1983 | 3.1 .3 1.3 1.0 1.4 .6 1.5 1.1 2.1 .4 .1 -.1 | 12.1 13.2 16.3 9.1 | 4.7
1984 | 2.3 .4 .6 .3 .1 .5 .2 -.1 -.3 .0 .0 -.4 | 11.6 4.0 1.4 -1.3 | 8.1
1985 | .0 .6 .6 .1 .5 -.1 -.5 .9 .4 -.8 .8 -.1 | 1.2 4.0 1.4 1.1 | 1.5
1986 | 1.6 -.6 -1.0 1.5 -.2 -.1 -.1 .6 -.1 .9 .3 1.3 | 4.4 1.9 .3 6.6 | 2.5
1987 | -1.0 1.6 .1 .6 .4 .9 .6 -.2 .0 1.3 .5 .5 | 4.1 7.1 4.8 6.9 | 4.8
| | |
1988 | -.2 .2 .1 .8 -.4 .0 .6 .1 .3 .4 .8 .5 | 1.8 2.6 2.9 5.3 | 4.0
1989 | .9 -1.1 .8 .0 -.7 -.1 -1.0 .3 -.3 -.4 .2 -.1 | 4.1 -1.7 -5.0 -1.8 | 1.4
1990 | -.1 .9 .4 -.7 .4 -.2 .1 .2 .0 -.7 -1.4 -.7 | 2.7 -.1 .4 -7.1 | -.9
1991 | -.8 -.8 -1.2 .4 .7 1.5 .2 .1 1.2 -.2 -.3 -.6 | -10.3 1.0 7.8 1.0 | -2.8
1992 | .0 .5 1.0 .6 .3 -.2 .6 -.3 .2 .5 .5 -.1 | .6 6.3 1.7 3.1 | 2.9
| | |
1993 | .8 .3 .1 .5 -.5 .0 .2 -.4 1.2 .1 .4 .8 | 4.3 1.3 .6 5.2 | 2.9
1994 | .0 .4 .8 .5 .8 .0 .6 .3 .1 .4 .7 .8 | 4.5 7.1 4.5 5.2 | 4.5
1995 | .3 -.5 -.1 -.5 .1 .3 -.8 1.0 .6 -.7 -.1 -.1 | 2.9 -2.0 1.3 -.3 | 2.4
1996 | -.3 .8 -.5 1.2 .7 .7 -.1 .2 .3 -.4 .8 .4 | -.2 7.6 3.6 2.0 | 1.9
1997 | .3 .9 .0 .3 .0 .5 .4 .9 .4 .6 .5 .1 | 5.8 3.2 6.2 6.7 | 4.7
| | |
1998 | .3 -.2 .2 .6 .2 -1.2 -.5 2.2 -.6 .4 -.5 -.1 | 2.0 1.4 .0 1.6 | 3.2
1999 | .2 .2 .2 -.2 .6 -.1 .3 .4 .1 .7 .2 .2 | .7 1.4 2.7 4.4 | 1.5
2000 | .1 .0 .5 .1 .2 .0 -.7 .3 .1 -.4 -.8 -1.2 | 1.5 2.4 -1.4 -4.5 | 1.7
2001 | -.8 -.2 -.3 -.1 -.1 -1.0 .4 -.6 -1.0 -1.2 | -8.2 -3.2 -4.2 |
| | |
IP | | |
(1992 = 100) | | |
1999 | 121.2 121.5 121.7 121.5 122.2 122.0 122.4 122.9 123.0 123.9 124.1 124.3 | 121.5 121.9 122.7 124.1 | 122.5
2000 | 124.3 124.3 124.9 125.1 125.4 125.3 124.5 124.9 125.0 124.6 123.6 122.1 | 124.5 125.2 124.8 123.4 | 124.5
2001 | 121.1 120.8 120.4 120.3 120.2 119.0 119.4 118.7 117.5 116.1 | 120.8 119.8 118.5 |
| | |
Capacity | | |
(percent of | | |
1992 output) | | |
1999 | 151.0 151.3 151.6 151.8 152.1 152.3 152.5 152.7 153.0 153.2 153.4 153.5 | 151.3 152.1 152.7 153.4 | 152.4
2000 | 153.7 153.9 154.1 154.3 154.4 154.6 154.8 154.9 155.0 155.2 155.3 155.4 | 153.9 154.4 154.9 155.3 | 154.6
2001 | 155.5 155.6 155.6 155.7 155.8 155.8 155.9 156.0 156.0 156.1 | 155.6 155.8 156.0 |
| | |
Utilization | | |
(percent) | | |
1979 | 86.3 86.7 86.8 85.2 86.2 86.0 85.4 84.2 84.0 84.2 83.3 83.0 | 86.6 85.8 84.5 83.5 | 85.1
1980 | 82.8 82.8 82.2 80.1 77.2 75.9 75.1 76.3 77.4 78.0 79.2 79.2 | 82.6 77.8 76.3 78.8 | 78.8
1981 | 78.6 78.8 78.9 78.8 79.3 78.9 79.2 78.4 77.5 76.5 75.0 73.4 | 78.8 79.0 78.4 75.0 | 77.8
1982 | 71.9 73.8 73.2 72.5 72.0 71.9 71.1 70.9 70.2 69.2 68.8 68.0 | 72.9 72.1 70.7 68.7 | 71.1
| | |
1983 | 70.1 70.3 71.2 71.9 72.9 73.3 74.4 75.2 76.8 77.0 77.1 77.0 | 70.5 72.7 75.5 77.1 | 73.9
1984 | 78.7 79.0 79.3 79.4 79.3 79.6 79.6 79.4 79.0 78.9 78.8 78.4 | 79.0 79.4 79.3 78.7 | 79.1
1985 | 78.2 78.5 78.8 78.7 78.9 78.7 78.1 78.7 78.8 78.0 78.5 78.2 | 78.5 78.8 78.5 78.2 | 78.5
1986 | 79.4 78.8 78.0 79.0 78.8 78.6 78.4 78.8 78.6 79.2 79.3 80.2 | 78.7 78.8 78.6 79.6 | 78.9
1987 | 79.3 80.5 80.5 80.9 81.1 81.8 82.2 82.0 81.9 82.9 83.2 83.6 | 80.1 81.3 82.0 83.2 | 81.7
| | |
1988 | 83.3 83.5 83.4 84.0 83.6 83.6 84.1 84.1 84.3 84.5 85.1 85.4 | 83.4 83.8 84.2 85.0 | 84.1
1989 | 86.1 85.0 85.5 85.3 84.5 84.3 83.2 83.4 82.9 82.5 82.5 82.3 | 85.5 84.7 83.2 82.4 | 83.9
1990 | 82.1 82.8 83.0 82.3 82.4 82.1 82.1 82.1 81.9 81.3 80.0 79.3 | 82.6 82.3 82.0 80.2 | 81.8
1991 | 78.5 77.8 76.8 77.0 77.5 78.5 78.6 78.6 79.5 79.3 78.9 78.4 | 77.7 77.7 78.9 78.9 | 78.3
1992 | 78.3 78.6 79.3 79.7 79.8 79.5 79.9 79.6 79.6 79.9 80.1 79.9 | 78.7 79.7 79.7 80.0 | 79.5
| | |
1993 | 80.4 80.5 80.5 80.9 80.3 80.2 80.3 79.9 80.7 80.6 80.8 81.3 | 80.5 80.5 80.3 80.9 | 80.5
1994 | 81.2 81.3 81.8 82.1 82.6 82.4 82.7 82.8 82.7 82.8 83.2 83.7 | 81.4 82.3 82.7 83.2 | 82.4
1995 | 83.8 83.2 82.9 82.4 82.2 82.3 81.5 82.1 82.5 81.7 81.4 81.1 | 83.3 82.3 82.0 81.4 | 82.3
1996 | 80.7 81.1 80.6 81.3 81.7 82.1 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.4 81.9 82.0 | 80.8 81.7 81.9 81.8 | 81.6
1997 | 82.1 82.6 82.4 82.4 82.2 82.4 82.5 83.0 83.1 83.3 83.4 83.1 | 82.4 82.4 82.8 83.3 | 82.7
| | |
1998 | 83.1 82.6 82.4 82.5 82.4 81.1 80.4 81.8 81.1 81.2 80.6 80.3 | 82.7 82.0 81.1 80.7 | 81.6
1999 | 80.3 80.3 80.3 80.0 80.4 80.1 80.2 80.4 80.4 80.9 80.9 80.9 | 80.3 80.2 80.4 80.9 | 80.4
2000 | 80.9 80.8 81.0 81.1 81.2 81.0 80.4 80.6 80.6 80.3 79.6 78.5 | 80.9 81.1 80.6 79.5 | 80.5
2001 | 77.9 77.7 77.4 77.3 77.2 76.3 76.6 76.1 75.3 74.4 | 77.6 76.9 76.0 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See note to table 13.
Explanatory Note
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release,
which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of
output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and
the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly
indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More
detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and
electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at
the Board's World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown
in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to
December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board's Web site.
Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided
as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of
Commerce's Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please
call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes
containing historical data and the data published in this release also are
available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Publications Services, 202-452-3245.
Industrial Production
Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output
of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the
reference period for the index is 1992. For the period since 1997, the total
IP index has been constructed from 276 individual series based on the
1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. These individual
series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry
groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products
are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and
equipment, and intermediate products (which are inputs to nonindustrial
sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major
industry groups include two-digit SIC industries and aggregates of these
industries-for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining,
and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures,
including details regarding series classification, relative importance
weights, and data sources, is available on the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in
output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and
the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special
aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of
several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are
summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of
the statistical tables, see below.
Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial
production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output
measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production
process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as
tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations
and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate
monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a
few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output
(calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a
corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the
high-technology grouping and include computers and semiconductors.
When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of
output are based on either production-worker hours or electric power use
by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in
the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. The data on electric power use are described below. The factors
used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical
relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used
to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by
technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in
benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of
source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and
Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by
the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United
States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and
publications of the Department of Energy.
Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for
the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed
discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin
February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the
output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from
their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP
index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since
1977. Between 1977 and 1992, the weights for months from January to
June were drawn from the year containing the month being estimated and
the preceding year; for months from July to December, the weights are
drawn from the current and following year. Since mid-1992, the weights
change monthly, eliminating distortions in the contributions of several
high-technology industries-sectors where weights shift noticeably
year-to-year. Thus, the current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or
any of the sub-aggregates) since mid 1992 is the geometric mean of the
change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit
value added estimate for the current month (pm) and the estimate for
previous month:
The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant
tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries' relative
contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the
relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is
about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month,
then this gain would boost growth in total IP by percentage point (0.05
x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve's
web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact
proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to
the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/
releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa).
Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the
15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the
superscript "p" in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent
three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are
denoted by the superscript "r" in tables.) For the first estimate of output
for a given month, about 48 percent of the source data (in value-added
terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about
85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published,
96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data
availability by data type is summarized in the table below:
Proportion (in percent) of industrial production covered by data
available in successive monthly estimates, 1999.
Month of estimate
Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Physical product 19\1 33 46\2 47
Production-worker hours 28\3 28 28 28
Electric power use 0 22 22 22
Federal Reserve estimates\4 53 17 3 3\5
Total industrial production 100 100 100 100
1.Includes provisional series totaling nearly 13 percent of IP that are
derived from weekly data and for which the actual data may lag several
months.
2.Includes quarterly data totaling 6 percent of IP that, on average, are
received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, data
are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the
third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of
the first month of a quarter.
3.This figure refers only to those individual series that both initially and
ultimately are based on the hours data.
4.Estimates for series not yet covered by data for physical product or
electric power use.
5.Includes monthly and quarterly physical product data totaling 3
percent of IP that typically are available too late for inclusion in the
current index but are included at the time of an annual revision.
Until the source data for a particular series become available for a given
month, estimates for the missing observations are based on other available
data, such as labor input, recent trends in output and orders, and anecdotal
reports from industry sources. After the fourth month that an estimate is
published, indexes are not revised further until the time of an annual
revision or a benchmark revision. These historical revisions are typically
published in the late fall of each year; the most recent revision was
published on December 5, 2000, and incorporated revised source data as
well as data from the 1998 Annual Survey of Manufactures and the 1997
Census of Manufactures.
Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using
Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the
current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 2000;
for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June
2000. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business
cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1977, all seasonally adjusted
aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted
indexes of the individual series.
Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without
regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent
during the 1987-99 period. The average revision to the percent change in
total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was
0.21 percentage point during the 1987-99 period. In most cases (about 83
percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate
for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate.
Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded
indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the
rounded indexes shown in the release.
Capacity Utilization
Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity
and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and
electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate
is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity
index. The Federal Reserve Board's capacity indexes attempt to capture
the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a
plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after
factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of
inputs to operate the capital in place.
Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 78 detailed industries (55
in manufacturing, 21 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly
correspond to industries at the two- and three-digit SIC level. Estimates of
capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including
primary and advanced processing industries within manufacturing,
durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining,
utilities, and total industry. Also, special aggregates are available, such as
high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries.
Component industries of the primary- and advanced-processing groups
within manufacturing are listed in the note on table 2 of the release.
Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be
consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically
available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct
monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the
Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source
data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources
(primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of
Energy's Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are
available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper,
industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for
electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 15 percent of
total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for
manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the
Bureau of the Census's Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries
account for a bit more than 80 percent of total industry capacity. In the
absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity
is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total
industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to
construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html).
Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated
in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis
through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of
individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived
from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the
monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher
index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the
individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent
monthly production index by the related capacity index.
Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be
consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about
the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the
Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of
capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the
movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based
utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was
the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This
was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher
utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC
(currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen
years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry
utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line
with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates
reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in
the SPC.
Perspective. Over the 1967-1999 period, the average total industry
utilization rate is 82.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory
operating rate has been 81.1 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at
capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the
broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and
total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in
wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 6 are
specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month.
Electric Power
Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and
for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining
firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are
generally collected at the 3-digit SIC level for mining and manufacturing.
Aggregates for 2-digit industries, as well as for total mining, durable,
nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial electric power use, are
computed. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear
nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for
the nondefense nuclear material series (part of SIC 2819) in total IP is
considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition,
aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are
computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data
for the 2- and 3-digit industries are available on the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17).
Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities
and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The
primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility
provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal
Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1998 Annual
Survey of Manufactures (the most recent available) suggests the Federal
Reserve data cover about 75 percent of the overall sales to manufacturing
in that year. The cogeneration panel covers about 50 percent of
cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order to provide more
complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of the survey, the
series are benchmarked at the 3-digit industry level to the latest available
data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of
Manufactures.
Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are
edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 3-digit SIC
industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable for some
reason, responses are estimated.
Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 3-digit SIC
level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of
seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure
(Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because
the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year
adjustment is also made where appropriate.
Description of Tables.
Table 1 summarizes the latest changes in output for the major market and
industry groupings. Fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter changes for the past
three years are shown. Output changes expressed at an annual rate for the
past four quarters as well as monthly changes for the latest four months are
shown. In addition, year-over-year changes are displayed for the latest IP
month.
Table 2, which is in the same format as table 1, summarizes the latest
changes in output for a special group of aggregates that have been
constructed for analytical purposes. The total index is sub-divided into
two broad categories: an energy grouping, which includes consumer
energy products, commercial energy products, energy materials, and oil
and gas well drilling, and a nonenergy grouping, which includes the
remaining portion of the total index. Within the nonenergy aggregate,
several other analytically useful categories are shown. One of these is a
grouping of high-technology industries, which is composed of
semiconductors and related electronic components, and industries that use
a large concentration of these parts-computers and communication
equipment. Other sub-groupings of the market and industry structures
excluding this high-technology grouping and motor vehicles and parts are
shown.
Table 3 displays the last nine months of motor vehicle assemblies, shown
at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Seasonal factors for auto, light truck,
and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board's web
site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.html). Monthly
changes in the IP indexes for the corresponding motor vehicle series will
differ slightly from the monthly changes in assemblies, mainly because the
IP indexes are built from a weighted (based on relative values) aggregate
of the individual models.
Tables 4 and 5 show seasonally adjusted indexes for recent months for
the major market and industry groups included on table 1 and the special
aggregates displayed on table 2.
Table 6 summarizes the capacity utilization for the major industry
groupings as well as for a few special aggregates. In addition to the
utilization rates for the most recent four months and four quarters, the
1967-1999 average of utilization rates and operating rates for relevant
cyclical peaks and troughs also are shown for each series.
Table 7 summarizes capacity growth. Average rates of growth in capacity
for selected historical periods and for the most recent five years (on a
fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter basis) are shown. In addition, growth rates
for capacity on a annual-average basis are shown for the latest four
quarters; the capacity growth rate for the current IP month is shown as
well.
Table 8 shows total products expressed in gross values in billions of
chained 1996 dollars at an annual rate. Compiling the IP index using
gross-value weights facilitates comparison with other dollar-based data.
The gross-value system focuses on products that leave the industrial sector
and includes both final and intermediate products. The materials
consumed in making final and intermediate products are implicitly
included in the value weights applied to product series. The gross-product
weights are derived from Census of Manufactures and Annual Survey of
Manufactures data.
Table 9 shows diffusion indexes, which are calculated as the percentage of
IP series that increased over the relevant span (one, three, or six months)
plus one-half of the percentage of series that were unchanged. Because
available source data for the current IP month account for a little less than
half of the total index, the diffusion indexes are published with a
one-month lag.
Table 10 shows the most recent six months in index form (both seasonally
and not seasonally adjusted) of electric power use by industry for the
major industry aggregates.
Tables 11-14 display historical seasonally adjusted data for total IP and
manufacturing as well as the aggregates excluding high-technology
industries. Monthly changes in output as well as indexes for output,
utilization, and capacity are shown.
Note: The summary tables in the G17 release do not include all of the
publicly available data. The more detailed series for IP, utilization,
capacity, and electric power are available at the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/download.html).
References and Release Dates
References. The annual revision published in early December 2000 was
described in an article published in the March 2001 Federal Reserve
Bulletin. The annual revision published late 1999 is described more
completely in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol.86 (March 2000). A
description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and
capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve
Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. The Federal Reserve
methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed
in "Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and
Data" by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf.
Industrial Production-1986 Edition contains a more detailed description
of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus
a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The
major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have
been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990,
June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997,
February 1998, January 1999, and March 2000).
Release Schedule
At 9:15 a.m. on
2001: January 17, February 16, March 16, April 17, May 14, June 15,
July 17, August 15, September 14, October 16, November 16, and
December 14.2002: January 16, February 15, March 15, April 16, May 15, June 14,
July 16, August 15, September 17, October 17, November 15, and
December 17.